The corn futures market is 3 cents lower this morning. On Monday, corn futures closed 1/2 to 2 1/2 cents higher. The average of analyst estimates is for 2.266 bbu of corn stocks on Sept 1. The Grain Stocks report will be out on Wednesday. After yesterday’s close NASS reported 75% of US corn was mature as of 9/27, with 15% harvested. Corn harvest in NE is 4% points ahead of average and ahead by 7 ppts in IA, but 9 points behind average in IL and 4 points behind in OH. NASS showed corn condition ratings were UNCH on the Brugler500 @ 356. Ohio, ND, KY and MO improved, but were offset by drops in Indiana, IL, MI, and NE. The weekly Export Inspections report showed 31.76 mbu of corn shipped on the week ending 9/24. That was 1.61 mbu more week to week and 15.15 mbu above the same week last year. Accumulated corn exports were 109.57 mbu through the 24th. Coceral lowered its EU plus Britain corn production estimate 1.8 MMT to 62.8 citing dryness.
--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Beans start Tuesday with 3 to 5 cent losses from overnight trading. Front month soybean futures were lower on Monday, closing with losses of 1 3/4 to 6 1/4 cents. Meal futures were also lower yesterday with a $4.30/ton drop. Bean oil was higher on Monday, closing with 25 to 45 point gains. Soybean harvest progressed 14% week to week with 20% of this year’s crop out of the fields. That is 5 percent points ahead of average. In IA 30% of soybeans were harvested, compared to their 5-yr average of 8%. NE beans were 27% cut, compared to the 5-yr average of 19%. Condition ratings were a 364 on the Brugler500 index, up 2 points wk/wk. Bean conditions in Nebraska were down the most on the week, falling 11 points on the Brugler500 to 354. Ahead of tomorrow’s grain stocks report, analysts are expecting 578 mbu of soybean stocks on Sept. 1. Traders are expecting USDA to increase the estimate of last year’s crop, but with offsetting adjustments to residual use. Soybean exports from USDA’s weekly update were 44.52 mbu. That was down from 50.7 LW but above the 36.2 mbu from the same week last year. The YTD bean shipments are up to 178.16 mbu from a September 1 start.
--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Overnight wheat trading has wheat futures UNCH to 2 cents lower. The dollar was weaker overnight, but has been gaining on the Russian ruble. On Monday, Winter wheat closed higher but spring wheat closed in the red. Gains for SRW were limited to 6 1/4 per bushel, and HRW gained 7 1/4 to 7 1/2 cents. Spring wheat closed yesterday fractionally to a penny lower. The average pre-report estimate for Sept 1 US wheat stocks is 2.24 bbu. Traders also expect USDA to show wheat production at 1.836 bbu, down 2 mbu from the August estimate. Of that, 65% is expected to be winter and 31% spring. Winter wheat was reported 35% planted as of 9/27. That is 2 percentage points faster than average and up from 20% LW. Emergence is at 10%, also up 2 from the 5-yr average. USDA’s weekly Export Inspections report showed 563,427 MT of wheat was shipped on the week ending 9/24. MYTD wheat exports were 8% higher yr/yr at 9.221 MMT.
--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Cattle futures shook off the COF report and closed with gains of 25 cents to 60 cents on Monday. Feeders were mixed but mostly higher, up 32 to 90 cents in the front months with a 17 cent drop in March. The 9/25 Feeder Cattle Index from CME was up $0.38 to $142.61. This week’s cash trade has yet to develop. Last week the bulk of sales was $105 live based and $165 in the beef. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Monday. Choice boxes were down $1.62 cwt. to $217.72, and Select boxes were 56 cents lower to $206.42. USDA’s estimates Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 118k head. That is below 120k last week but 4,000 head above the same Monday in 2019.
--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Lean hog futures closed the first trade day of the week mostly lower. Dec-April futures were 24 to 40 cents lower, while October gained 95 cents to keep close to the cash index. The deferred contracts were within a nickel of UNCH. The CME Lean Hog Index was $74.53 on 9/24, which was up another $0.83. The week’s Fresh Bacon Index from CME was $14.23 higher to $189.34. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was 72 cents lower in the PM update, @ $63.98. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was $2.07 stronger to $93.39. Federally inspected hog slaughter for Monday was estimated at 489,000 head. That is 11,000 head higher wk/wk and up 4,000 from the same Monday last year.
--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Cotton is down a sharp 61 to 88 points this morning. Monday trading saw wide ranges on the board, but ultimately left futures 26 to 28 points in the red. The Crop Progress report noted 66% of cotton had open bolls. Harvest was 13% completed as of 9/27. That is up from 11% last week and 1 percentage point behind the 5-yr average pace. Texas cotton harvest was reported at 22% compared to the 5-yr average of 18%. Cotton condition ratings scored a 316 on the Brugler500 index, which was down 3 wk/wk. In Georgia, cotton conditions fell 13 points on the Brugler500 to 360. The Cotlook A index was back up by 15 points for Sept 25, to 70.75 c/lb. The AWP for cotton is 50.45 cents/lb, the week’s LDP is 1.55 cents.
--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management